Tropical Storm Risk forecast calls for 2 landfalling US hurricanes in 2025 season
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has released its April forecast update for the upcoming 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and lowered the number of named storms it calls for by one, but also provides its guidance for landfalling storms, saying that it forecasts there could be 2 hurricane landfalls in the United States this year.
Back in December 2024, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) projected there could be 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes in the 2025 hurricane season, numbers that would be roughly aligned with the 30-year norm.
A number of other forecasts for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season have been released since, which we have detailed on our dedicated 2025 hurricane season page here.
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has now provided its April forecast update, with one small change to the number of named tropical storms forecast.
The April forecast from TSR calls for 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes to form in the Atlantic basin over the 2025 season.
TSR predicts that North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2025 will result in activity close to the 1991-2020 30-year norm (14 storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes).
When including other hurricane season forecasts we’ve seen so far, the average now calls for 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, which is slightly below the recent 10-year historical average for the Atlantic basin, but a little above the 30-year norm.
The group also lowered its forecast for accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) slightly, from 129 at the December update to now 120 as of April.
TSR also said it believes there is a 30% probability the ACE index will be in the upper tercile (greater than 156), a 47% likelihood the ACE index will be in the middle tercile (between 75-156), and a 24% chance the ACE index will be in the lower tercile (sub-75) this year.
“The factors influencing the TSR extended forecast for 2025 North Atlantic hurricane activity to be close to the 1991-2020 climatology are the anticipated near-neutral ENSO conditions through summer and autumn 2025, and for tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters to be near or slightly above normal by August-September 2025,” the forecaster explained.
While qualifying that, “It should be noted that uncertainties at this lead time are large and the forecast skill is low at this lead time.”
Finally, TSR also provides its landfall forecast, calling for 2 landfalling hurricanes and 4 landfalling tropical storms in the 2025 season for the United States, which is above the 30-year norm and slightly below the recent 10-year historical.
Track the 2025 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges.
