No indication reinsurance market trending back to pre-2023 levels: RenRe CEO

Speaking today during his firm’s first-quarter earnings call, RenaissanceRe CEO Kevin O’Donnell explained that there is no indication the reinsurance market is trending back to pre-2023 levels, in rates and terms, while he now feels net new demand for property cat limit could be greater than $10 billion at the mid-year renewals.

The CEO of the Bermuda-headquartered global reinsurance firm and third-party capital manager gave some insights into how RenaissanceRe (RenRe) is feeling about the upcoming mid-year renewal season, while explaining to analysts that he still feels reinsurance is set to largely trade around the levels we see today, with no significant softening expected.

“I think the important thing is, from a rate adequacy perspective, the property market is in exceptional shape compared to where it has been historically,” O’Donnell said.

“Right now, the market is much more stable than where it was and much more historically normal than where it was prior to ’23”

He continued to explain, “What we’ve consistently said is we think the market, like any financial market, will trade around the level that we’re at, and that’s our belief going into this year, is that there’ll be some trading up and down in different classes, but the level of rate that has been established in the market is not going to trend down.

“It’s not like we went up a ski slope and we’re going to ski back down. We’ve kind of walked up to the top of the mesa, and we’re going to walk across the top of the mesa at this new level. Sometimes it’ll be a little off, sometimes it’ll be a little down.

“But there’s no indication that the market is trending back to pre-23, levels.”

It’s worth also noting that in his opening remarks during the call, O’Donnell said that the current volatility in global financial markets would be expected to continue increasing demand for protection, while also sustaining rates.

On expectations for mid-year demand for reinsurance limit, RenaissanceRe had previously forecast around $10 billion of incremental demand at the renewals.

Now, O’Donnell said, “The market’s growing. I think what we said at 1/1 is we thought about $10 billion of new cat demand, most of that will be towards the top of programmes.

“We think that is actually a bit higher now.”

O’Donnell also explained the importance of rate adequacy, as well as ensuring the overall portfolio remains efficient and so capital deployment will remain measured and while RenRe has “allocated more capital for growth” the decision to deploy it or not will be on a “deal by deal” basis at the renewal.

David Marra, Chief Underwriting Officer at RenaissanceRe, also discussed the outlook for the mid-year 2025 reinsurance renewals during the call today.

Marra said, “Supply and demand are more in balance than at January 1st, and trading conditions are more favourable.

“The market remains attractive, and we have appetite to continue growing in property catastrophe, and we plan to deploy additional limit through mid-year. Our primary focus, however, is on margin.”

Adding, “We feel really good about where the cat market is and the opportunities ahead. The rates and retentions are some of the most attractive we’ve seen.

“Whether rates are up or down, a bit is less reliant on that. It’s more we’re confident that those trading conditions will continue.”

Marra explained further on conditions already being seen from early renewals, “We have seen some renewals, and we’re encouraged by the trading conditions, it is more in favour of reinsurers than it was at 1/1. Supply and demand are more in balance than what we saw at 1/1, there is growing demand, and we’ve been able to construct a really nice portfolio so far.

“With the bulk of the renewals yet to come, we’ll have to go through those. But there’s a lot more renewals that are loss impacted.”

Marra also discussed the outlook for Florida property catastrophe reinsurance renewals at June 1st 2025, highlighting an expectation that conditions will remain favourable this year.

“Demand is growing in Florida and pricing is strong. So it will be an opportunity. We see more risk moving back into the private markets, from Citizens depopulating. That does increase demand, and the Florida Hurricane Cat Fund increasing where it attaches, so that increases demand down below.

“So all that plays to our strengths. We’ll be able to provide solutions with the new demand, private deals and things like that.”

Marra added that, “Other property is more challenged on the rate side, we’re expecting additional competition there.”

But said, “We’re fully confident we can construct an attractive portfolio using ceded reinsurance, but we’re deploying more of our cat capacity on the property cat side.”

Also of interest, following the wildfires in California in January, RenRe has updated its risk models and is ready to quote deals including that peril, feeling confident in its ability to assess and price the risk.

Marra explained, “Post wildfire, we have updated our models, and that’s where we can do that quicker than anyone else in the market. We’ve updated our wildfire models, learned from the last event, and can be quoting big lines, growing on some deals exposed to wildfire, that’s what we’re able to do. Our tail is normally steeper than the vendor models, we’ve been able to make improvements and can quote that with confidence.”