Marquee May auctions come at a volatile moment in the wake of Trump’s “Liberation Day”

New York’s marquee spring auctions, beginning on 12 May, are already feeling the turbulence of President Donald Trump’s second term, with the chaos of “Liberation Day” leading to casualties in the consignment period. At least one eight-figure work being negotiated for auction by Phillips was held back this season, according to the house’s deputy chairman, Robert Manley. “Our sales next week would have been larger had the tariffs not happened,” he tells The Art Newspaper.

“Tariffs and ensuing stock-market fluctuations really came at the worst time—exactly what a tricky market didn’t need,” Clare McAndrew said upon the release of her annual Art Basel and UBS Art Market Report, which found that auction sales declined for a second consecutive year in 2024, dropping by 24% in the US.

Judging by next week’s offerings, this downturn has yet to reverse: the Modern and contemporary auctions at Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips will bring to the block an estimated $1.1bn to $1.5bn in art—the lowest total estimate for the spring sales since 2010, and around $250m lower than in May 2024. Not a single nine-figure-estimate lot has been consigned to public auction this season.

These sales also reflect the art market malaise of the past two years: political uncertainty and perceptions of a weak market continue to dissuade collectors from parting with their top works, resulting in thin sales. According to data compiled by Pi-ex analysts, the number of lots catalogued is the lowest of any May marquee sales week since 2007—not accounting for the Covid-19 pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, as well as 2009, the year of the global recession.

“These sales will be closely watched as the first to establish the floor for what we can expect under the new administration,” says the art adviser Alex Glauber. In other words, the next week’s performance will help determine whether Trump 2.0 is going to lead to another aberrative year akin to those during the pandemic. “We are not seeing discretionary and opportunistic selling; situations upon which people feel they can capitalise have dried up,” Glauber continues. “As a seller, if you can afford to sit this season out, I think you will.”

With individual trophy lots difficult to consign, the highest valued works next week continue to come mostly from single-owner collections. “It makes sense for auction houses in difficult times to consolidate their efforts into landing estates rather than chasing after single works,” Glauber says.

Christie’s has secured the season’s biggest trove: the $200m collection of the Barnes and Noble founder Leonard Riggio and his wife, Louise, much of which was housed in their Bridgehampton home. Its prize jewel is a signature Piet Mondrian Neoplastic painting, Composition with Large Red Plane, Bluish Gray, Yellow, Black and Blue (1922). Estimated in the region of $50m and guaranteed in house, it could break the artist’s $51m auction record. Perhaps the clearest market indicator from the Riggio collection will come courtesy of a painting from René Magritte’s highly coveted L’empires des lumières series. (Its estimate has not been disclosed.) Bought by the Riggios in November 2023 for $34.9m, the 1949 work’s ability—or failure—to provide a quick return will be “a good test for health at the upper end of the market”, says the art adviser Megan Fox Kelly.

Key collections

Meanwhile, within Christie’s 20th-century evening auction, around $50m worth of works on offer comes from the collection of Anne and Sid Bass. The group’s top lot is Mark Rothko’s No. 4 (Two Dominants) [Orange, Plum, Black] (1950-51), which has been in the Bass Museum of Art’s collection since 1980. Valued in the region of $35m, it is backed by a third-party guarantee.

Lacking similarly sized troves, Sotheby’s is bringing to the block collections of two well-known female art dealers. From Daniella Luxembourg, 15 post-war Italian pieces are being offered, led by Lucio Fontana’s Fine di Dio (1963), whose diamond dust “gives a three-dimensionality to the surface”, the dealer says. Following this sale, 12 works from the late New York gallerist Barbara Gladstone, all of which are unguaranteed, will be offered, including a Richard Prince Nurse painting from his 2003 show at Gladstone Gallery (estimated at $4m to $6m). A Sotheby’s spokesperson declined to comment on the reasons behind these guarantee arrangements.

While Sotheby’s did not wish to discuss Luxembourg’s impetus for selling, it frames the consignment as a sign of confidence in the market. “What’s interesting is Daniella is choosing to sell now,” says Lisa Dennison, the chairperson of Sotheby’s Americas. “I think she feels confident in the material, in our estimates and in the guarantees. So, there is some discretionary selling and, with a guarantee, you’re protected on your downside.”

Sotheby’s has also netted this season’s top-value lot: a Giacometti head from 1955, modelled after his brother Diego, and reportedly valued at $70m. It comes from the collection of the real-estate developer Sheldon Sollow, and is being sold to philanthropically benefit his foundation.

“This is one of the most important sculptures by Giacometti, and therefore of the second part of the 20th century,” says Grégoire Billaut, Sotheby’s chair of contemporary art. From the six examples of this cast, Billaut explains, this is the only one that is hand-painted, and three are in leading museums. “We only get a work of this calibre every three or so years,” he says.

Despite landing the Giacometti, losing out on the Riggio collection has cut into Sotheby’s bottom line; the house’s total pre-sale estimate stands at $485.1m to $673.4m across all auctions (including day sales), lower than Christie’s total estimate of $612m to $829m. Sotheby’s stresses that its total pre-sale estimate rises considerably when factoring in another major sale in New York this month: the Saunders collection, valued at between $80m and $120m, which is pitched as the most expensive collection of the category. “The inclusion of an Old Masters sale in a Modern and contemporary art season will certainly help to buttress thinner sales,” Glauber says.

Flexible arrangements

Phillips’s total sales this season have a pre-sale estimate of $74.7m to $108.9m. Its 40-lot evening sale is led by a 1984 painting by Jean-Michel Basquiat, estimated at between $4.5m and $6.5m. “This year’s sale is quite comparable to the sale we held in November, except for at that sale we had a $40m Basquiat, so that makes a big difference,” explains Manley. Phillips has no in-house guarantees for this sale, he adds: “This is a season to take on less risk.”

The aversion to risk can be felt behind the scenes, too, according to a number of advisers who spoke to The Art Newspaper. While it is too early to fully assess third-party guarantees, which are usually only finalised a few hours before a sale, many have attested to more flexible arrangements taking place at auction houses. “I’m noticing more package deals for third-party guarantees, while sellers seem to be willing to take lower estimates,” says the adviser Courtney Pettit of Pettit Art Partners. “Anyone who is selling might take a deal they wouldn’t have taken six months ago, or perhaps forego the process while they wait for markets to settle.”

To predict next week’s performance, one might look to less high-profile recent sales, where the uncertainty of Trump 2.0 is being mirrored in a more unpredictable market. Christine Bourron, Pi-ex’s chief executive, says that while “a down market still subdues overall appetite”, more conservative estimates are also enticing bidders, “resulting in a more volatile market”. She points to an American art sale that took place last month in New York at Christie’s that, thanks to its lack of guarantees, provided “a rare and unfiltered look at the New York art market”.

Three similar Georgia O’Keeffe paintings with the same $1m low estimate were offered during the sale, and all performed extremely differently: one hammered at $2.3m, another went for $900,000 and the last was bought in. “Right now in the art market, the highs are higher and the lows are lower,” Bourron says. “This is not a bad thing, however. People are afraid of volatility, afraid of risk, but this is also when the biggest upsides are to be made.”